3.  TRAFFIC IMPACTs of a
Danbury Casino
on the Greater Danbury, CT Area
October 2002

A casino at the former Union Carbide site in Danbury
would have significant impacts on the I-84 portal to Connecticut
and would negatively impact much of the State of Connecticut .
--- Key conclusion of the 10/2002 casino traffic study.
    

Buckhurst Fish & Jacquemart Inc. (BFJ) of NY, NY was retained to prepare a traffic impact study for the Housatonic Valley Council of Elected Officials (HVCEO) and other regional organizations in the Danbury Area to evaluate the traffic impacts associated with a potential casino development in Danbury , Connecticut .

The other study funding partners were the Greater Danbury Chamber of Commerce, the Housatonic Valley Tourism Commission, and the Housatonic Valley Economic Development Partnership.

The goal of the study was to examine the extent to which a major gaming facility would affect traffic and economic conditions in the region. We assumed that the casino would be built on the former Union Carbide site located on the south side of I-84 between Exits 1 and 2.

The consultant assumed a test casino with 15,000 gaming positions. This is 34% larger than the Foxwoods Casino and 160% larger than the Mohegan Sun in 1997. We consider this a conservative estimate of the potential size of the casino, because of its close proximity to the New York metropolitan region.

Based on the accessibility analysis of the casino in relation to the primary market area, the distribution of the traffic was estimated for the principal directions of travel. This calculation led to the estimate that approximately 74% of the trips would come from the west and 21% would come from the east via I-84.

Let's all work together to save the
Region from this nightmare traffic scenario.

It is assumed that 40% of the patrons coming from the New York Metro area (via I-684) and 25% of the patrons coming from the east would be traveling by bus or a combination of rail and local bus.

To achieve such a high share of trips by mass transportation the casino operators would need to undertake an aggressive program to attract patrons and employees to the transit system.

Based on the above assumptions it is estimated that the Danbury Casino would generate a total of 52,000 vehicle trips on a Friday and 62,000 vehicle trips on a Sunday. Daily traffic volumes on I-84 west of the project site would increase by 49% to 56%, while daily traffic volumes east of the site between Exit 2 and Exit 3 would increase by 21% to 22%. Along I-684 daily traffic volumes would increase by 56% to 57%.

Traffic demand will exceed available capacity to a substantial degree at the I-684/I-84 interchange for the south-to-east ramp as well as the east-to-south ramp, and along I-84 between the I-684 interchange and Exit 2 in Connecticut . Traffic demand also exceeds available capacities along Rte 7 south of I-84 and at Kenosia Avenue and Mill Plain Road .

During the hours when traffic demand exceeds capacity – primarily the afternoon and evening peak hours and on Sunday evenings – substantial amounts of traffic would shift from the regional freeways onto local roads in the Towns of North Salem, NY, and Ridgefield , CT and in the City of Danbury .

Traffic shifts from I-684 and I-84 will most likely use Route 116, Route 121, Route 35 and Ridgebury Road , while traffic shifts from Route 7 will take Backus Avenue to George Washington Highway , as well as Branchville Road (Route 102) to Route 35 and Ridgebury Road .

During the Friday and Sunday peak hours it is estimated that about 1,100 to 1,200 vehicles per hour would shift to Ridgebury Road . Peak-hour traffic volumes along Ridgebury Road north of Route 116 would almost triple, thus creating substantial delays and quality of life issues in this corridor. Peak-hour traffic along Main Street (Rte 35) in Ridgefield would increase by 75 to 100%.

A casino at the former Union Carbide site in Danbury would have significant impacts on the I-84 portal to Connecticut and would negatively impact much of the State of Connecticut . Over the last 10 to 20 years this portal has become more vital to the state as the I-95 corridor has become more congested. A casino in Danbury would create tremendous bottlenecks at this portal.

A significant impact of the Danbury Casino would be the effect on the number of crashes along I-84, since the casino traffic is more prone to accidents than regular traffic. It is estimated that an additional 195 crashes per year could occur along the 12-mile section of I-84 between I-684 and Exit 8 in Connecticut as a result of the casino-related traffic.

Of the total additional crashes per year, there would be 51 injury crashes and 2 fatalities each year. The annual cost of these crashes is estimated at $13.3 million.

The additional vehicle miles of travel generated by the Danbury Casino are equivalent to the vehicle miles of travel of 6 Danbury malls or 25 Union Carbide Office Headquarters. The major reason for this substantial traffic impact is that the casino trips are much longer than the trips being made to a mall or to an office destination.

The travel delays caused by the casino traffic also have a significant impact on the region’s economy. Direct economic costs related to increased traffic delays in the region have been estimated at a total of $8.6 million per year (2002 dollars).

This cost only includes the annual time loss of the traffic circulating in the region and does not include any indirect costs.

A majority of this cost will be borne by businesses as a result of delays incurred by trucks and business travelers. Businesses in the region will lose $4.9 million annually due to lower productivity and loss of work hours as a result of travel delays.

In addition to the direct costs to the region, there are the indirect or induced costs related to the delays and reduced accessibility: relocation costs of businesses and households, loss of employee productivity and business earnings, property value reductions due to reduced accessibility, etc.

These indirect or induced costs are expected to be substantial, such that the total economic disbenefits may be more than double the direct costs related to the delays. A more detailed economic impact analysis should be undertaken to estimate the full economic costs of the proposed casino.